The Week Ahead: Week of 26 June (GMT+3)

Tuesday, 27 June, 17:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

Ahead of the anticipated release of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data, the University of Michigan has published the Consumer Sentiment Index for the United States. It shows a monthly increase of 7.9% from 59.2 to 63.9 points in June, indicating that Americans feel upbeat about inflation and the economy. Based on the available data, June’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data is expected to be around 104, compared to the previous record of 102.3.

Thursday, 29 June, 15:00 EU German CPI (MoM) (Jun)

The forecast for Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May was 0.6%. However, the actual reading turned out to be -0.1%, coming in as positive news for the inflation-plagued region. However, the unexpected decrease raises concerns about the potential impact that rate hikes have had on the economy, with some cautioning a slow down in rate increases.

Thursday, 29 June, 15:30 – US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

In May, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data surpassed expectations with an annualised growth rate of 1.3%, exceeding the forecasted rate of 1.1% and giving more reasons for the Fed to continue with its expected hiking cycle – 25 basis points at each of the next two FOMC meetings. 

Friday, 30 June, 9:00 – UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

In the first quarter of 2023, the U.K.’s GDP grew by 0.1%, aligning with the predicted forecast. However, the U.K. economy ranks bottom among G7 countries in growth, trailing behind Germany, France, and the U.S. The country continues to face high inflation rates, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming U.K. data.

Friday, 30 June, 15:30 – US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)

The May data for the overall PCE price index indicates a slight rise of 0.1% compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Services mainly drove this increase, while goods experienced disinflation. The question remains whether dropping prices will see the Fed ease up on its monetary policy.